The NCAA tournament tips off in full on Thursday, which means time’s a-wasting to get those brackets filled out. As a service to you, the reader, we thought it would be a good ideal to compile predictions from across the college basketball universe. Hopefully it helps and doesn’t send you down a rabbit hole of indecision.
First off, we here at WaPo HQ have ginned up all sorts of bracket help:
The perfect bracket to win your March Madness pool
Post mathmagician Neil Greenberg’s annual “perfect bracket” has Michigan State, Texas Tech, Tennessee and North Carolina reaching the Final Four, with Michigan State beating North Carolina for the title. Georgia State, UC Irvine, Saint Mary’s, Iowa, Murray State and Florida are Greenberg’s first-round upset picks.
The most likely first-round upsets
Greenberg has more on those lower-seeded teams that could surprise some people on Thursday and Friday.
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The four best bets to win the NCAA tournament
Post editor Mike Hume notes that almost every recent national champion has fit a certain statistical profile. Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke and Michigan State are the teams to watch this year.
Do you want the best chance at winning? Don’t take the biggest favorite.
More from Hume, this time on the higher-seeded teams that could be making an early exit (we’re looking at you, Virginia, Tennessee and LSU).
The first-round gambling guide
Going beyond the brackets to pick first-round games against the spread? We’re here to help.
And now for the predictions.
Ken Pomeroy
The nation’s preeminent college basketball numbers guru offers NCAA tournament probabilities.
Pomeroy’s statistics say Virginia (20.5 percent chance), Gonzaga (15.4), Duke (13.9) and Michigan State (10.9) have the best chance of winning the national title, with North Carolina (8.7) having the best chance out of the Midwest region. The next three teams on Pomeroy’s list: Michigan (5.8), Kentucky (4.6) and Tennessee (3.6).
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Jeff Sagarin
One of the nation’s other respected numbers guys has an all-chalk Final Four of Duke, Gonzaga, Virginia and North Carolina (the last and only time four No. 1 seeds filled the national semifinals was in 2008). Sagarin then has Duke beating Virginia for the title in his bracket, which features almost no upsets.
ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index is meant to predict performance based on team accomplishment, opponent strength, pace of play and other factors.
The metric says Virginia (32.8 percent chance), Gonzaga (23.6), Duke (14.7) and Michigan State (7.1) have the best chance of winning the national title, followed by North Carolina (6.8), Kentucky (3.0), Michigan and Tennessee (both 2.2).
ESPN’s preeminent college basketball color commentator has Duke, Michigan, Virginia and North Carolina in the Final Four, with North Carolina beating Duke for the national title. Belmont and Oregon are notable early-round upset picks in Bilas’s fairly chalky bracket.
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Several other ESPN analysts made Final Four picks.
Jay Williams’s Final Four: Duke, Gonzaga, Tennessee and Kentucky, with Kentucky beating Duke for the national title.
Dick Vitale’s Final Four: Duke, Gonzaga, Tennessee and Kentucky, with Duke beating Tennessee for the national title.
Seth Greenberg’s Final Four: Duke, Texas Tech, Virginia and Kentucky, with Duke beating Kentucky for the national title.
Rece Davis’s Final Four: Duke, Gonzaga, Tennessee and North Carolina, with Duke beating North Carolina for the national title.
Seth Davis
Over at the Athletic (subscription required), Davis’s bracket has Duke, Gonzaga, Purdue and Kentucky reaching the Final Four, with Duke beating Kentucky for the national title.
Among Davis’s first-round upsets: Liberty over Mississippi State, New Mexico State over Auburn and UC Irvine over Kansas State.
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The longtime college basketball reporter gave a breakdown of his bracket for NCAA.com. He has Michigan State, Gonzaga, Tennessee and North Carolina in the Final Four, with Gonzaga beating Tennessee for the national title.
Katz’s first-round upsets include Liberty over Mississippi State, Yale over LSU and Murray State over Marquette.
Jeff Goodman
Stadium’s college basketball analyst predicts Duke, Gonzaga, Virginia and Kentucky in the Final Four, with Gonzaga beating Virginia for its first NCAA title.
CBS Sports
The crew from one of the networks that broadcasts the tournament weighs in with their picks.
Gary Parrish’s Final Four: Duke, Gonzaga, Tennessee, North Carolina, with Duke beating North Carolina for the title. First-round upsets: Murray State, Northeastern, Saint Mary’s, UC Irvine, Oregon.
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Matt Norlander’s Final Four: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia, North Carolina, with Virginia beating Gonzaga for the title. First-round upsets: Liberty, Murray State, New Mexico State, UC Irvine.
Jerry Palm’s Final Four: Duke, Gonzaga, Tennessee and Kentucky, with Duke beating Tennessee for the title. First-round upsets: Liberty, Murray State, New Mexico State.
Dennis Dodd’s Final Four: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia and Kentucky, with Gonzaga beating Kentucky for the title. First-round upsets: Liberty, Yale, Murray State, New Mexico State, UC Irvine.
Scott Gleeson’s Final Four: Duke, Texas Tech, Virginia and Kentucky, with Virginia beating Duke.
Shelby Mast’s Final Four: Duke, Gonzaga, Tennessee and North Carolina, with Duke beating North Carolina.
Danielle Lerner’s Final Four: Duke, Texas Tech, Virginia and Kentucky, with Duke beating Virginia.
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Dan Wolken’s Final Four: Duke, Michigan, Virginia and Kentucky, with Duke beating Kentucky.
And finally, Zlatan Ibrahimovic
The soccer legend has it all figured out:
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